In football, touchdowns are hard to predict and can often be very random events. Players who ranked highly in touchdowns the previous year are likely to regress to the mean. A good way to measure a player’s touchdown opportunities is to look at their touches inside the red zone, 10-yard line, and 5-yard line. Here are three players that are likely to regress this upcoming fantasy season:
Gordon scored on all of his opportunities inside the 5-yard line and 9 out of 12 times within the 10-yard line. These numbers are off the charts and very likely to take a dip next season. However, Melvin Gordon is still expected to command almost all of the Chargers opportunities near the goal line, so don’t avoid picking him just based on a likely regression.
Lockett averaged 13.9 PPR/G despite zero targets inside the 5-yard line, zero inside the 10-yard line, five inside the 20-yard line, and eight in the endzone. Lockett was 52nd in expected touchdowns but 6th in actual touchdowns. These numbers are likely to fall off a cliff. Doug Baldwin’s departure could bode well for Lockett in terms of just getting more opportunities. Be wary on this WR.
Ebron had an absolute explosion of touchdowns in the 2018 season. Completely different in terms of touchdown efficiency he had previously throughout his career. Also, Jack Doyle will be healthy, which will decrease a lot of TD opportunities for Ebron. Watch out for a steep regression from Stone Hands Ebron.